Rusty’s CFB Week 12 Card
I seem to remember my first couple weeks of this college football betting season being similar to any campfire I’ve ever attempted to start. I had a bunch of good wood to burn off to the side with A BUNCH of kindling and small sticks built up strategically in the middle of my fire pit to get it going. I lit the match and tossed it onto my newspaper for week 1. It barely started. I went 13-15 (+0.31 units) in week 1 and it felt like my fire was hardly surviving. Week 2 rolls around, the wind picked up a little and the kindling started roaring. Between weeks 2 and 6 I went a combined 60-49 going up 32.5 units. Probably the best start to a CFB gambling season I’ve had.
It should be noted in weeks 1, 2, and 6, the College Football Friendship Parlay missed only by one leg each week which would’ve put us in a forest fire watch.
Something happened week 7 which almost put the roaring campfire out. Maybe it was that point in the night where everyone forgets about adding wood to the fire because the whiskey is flowing so freely. Maybe it was the Illinois game where tried to give away a win by allowing Purdue to score 46 points in the final 30 minutes of action. Whatever it was, my fire was barely smoldering after going 4-19-2 and losing 31.4 units. Fuck me, right?
In week 8 I popped up from my camp chair and threw some gas on the fire to go 9-6 (+1.4u). Maybe it was diesel fuel because the fire goes for a little longer in week 9 as my bets end 16-12 (+1.6u). Then everyone goes to bed. I ended week 10 CFB bets 1-11, down 11 units. Week 11 comes around and I decide to continue sleeping while the coals in the fire continue to glow 0-3 (-4.5u).
Now that I’ve done my best to paint a picture of my sad campfire of a CFB betting season (so far) for you, let’s get into week 12. I’m sad to say this is the most time I’ve spent listening to podcasts, digesting articles, scrolling social media, and looking through reddit threads in preparation for a betting card. After sleeping on my campfire and tossing money into it, I wanted to put together a card of 10 college football plays which I was proud of and confident in. One of those 10 being a play which would put a literal spark back into my season. I’ve done that for your perverted enjoyment here.
The picks are listed in ascending order of confidence with the last pick being my lock of the week. No personal analysis here because frankly, it’s not for me. At least not now. As Sergio Garcia once said, “I’ve heard people say my swing’s not perfect, and I know that. But golf’s a natural sport, very sensitive. It’s played a lot by feel. I don’t care if my swing is too flat.”
One play I would like to make a comment on is the Utah/Colorado over. It’s from a system I’m dipping my toe into. Basically, if totals start to move down significantly (think 3 points or more), the over has been more profitable in those games this year. The system combined with Colorado’s play style and their resurgence, I really like that one. Maybe I should’ve put it higher. Oh well, I don’t care if my swing is too flat.
10. Northwestern +28.5 vs. Ohio St
9. South Carolina -14 vs. Mizzou
8. UCLA +4 @ Washington (Friday Night Game)
7. BYU -2.5 vs. Kansas
6. Utah @ Colorado o45
5. Tennessee +9.5 @ Georgia
4. Boise -14 @ San Jose St
3. Penn St -28.5 @ Purdue
2. Oregon -13.5 @ Wisconsin
1. Boston College @ SMU o53.5
Pony up, bitches.
All lines are current as of 1PM EST Friday 11.15.24